Portfolios›Barbell Strategy

Barbell Strategy

Moderate

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Split between ultra-safe T-bills and aggressive equities with nothing in between. The barbell avoids medium-risk assets, limiting downside to the equity half while the T-bill half anchors the portfolio.

MAX DRAWDOWN

-28%

historical worst

RECOVERY

22 mo

from max drawdown

AVG CRISIS RETURN

-13%

across 7 events

Holdings Allocation

2 assets
SHVShort-Term Treasuries (SHV)
50%
SPYS&P 500 (SPY)
50%

Crisis Performance History

7 historical scenarios
2008 Global Financial Crisis
-25%
Dot-com Bust
-22%
COVID-19 Crash
-16%
Rate Hike Cycle 2022
-10%
Black Monday 1987
-10%
EU Debt Crisis 2011
-7%
Bond Massacre 1994
+2%

Returns = weighted portfolio peak-to-trough drawdown during each crisis period based on constituent ETF data.

PORTFOLIO STRESS TEST

Customize this portfolio

Adjust the Barbell Strategy weights, add your own holdings, and stress test against 18+ crisis scenarios — including hypothetical tail-risk events like China-Taiwan invasion and SWIFT cyber attack.

Run Portfolio Stress Test →

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Historical data is educational only. Not financial advice. Past crisis returns do not predict future performance.