The stress test is free. Seriously.
Run your portfolio against 9 real crises — all assets, no limits, no card. Pro unlocks forward-looking scenarios, AI analysis, and the full diagnostic toolkit.
"If the stress test is free, why upgrade to Pro?"
The free tier answers: "How much would I lose in past crises?" Pro answers: "What happens in crises that haven't happened yet?" — China-Taiwan invasion, AI bubble burst, US debt crisis. Plus an AI analyst that reads your results and tells you exactly what to do, Monte Carlo projections, and individual stock analysis. Free shows the problem. Pro gives you the complete picture.
"Markets are down 15%. Should I sell before it gets worse?"
Crisis Compass answers this with your actual portfolio and real historical data: how much of this type of crisis you have already absorbed, how much further it could fall from today's price, and exactly how much more the market must decline before selling is mathematically correct. Brokers won't show you this — it discourages trading. We will.
Free
See what your portfolio really risks
Full stress-test engine with all historical crises. No card, no limits, no catch.
- ✓All 9 historical crisis scenarios
2008 GFC, COVID, Dot-com, 1987 Black Monday, 1974 Stagflation, 2022 Rate Hike, 2025 Trade War, Bond Massacre 1994, EU Debt 2011
- ✓80+ asset classes
US sectors, international, bonds, commodities, crypto, thematic ETFs, UCITS, famous funds
- ✓Up to 20 positions
Build a real, diversified portfolio — not a toy demo
- ✓Full loss breakdown
Per-asset drawdown, portfolio loss %, concentration warning
- ✓Sunday Deep Dive newsletter
Weekly institutional market intelligence — free forever
- 🔒9 forward-looking scenarios
China-Taiwan, AI bubble, US debt crisis, cyber attack, and more
- 🔒AI Portfolio Analyst
Plain-language diagnosis powered by Claude
- 🔒Monte Carlo projection
1/3/5/10-year probabilistic fan chart
- 🔒Correlation heatmap + Antifragile Score™
Full matrix and 0-100 portfolio health rating
- 🔒Crisis Compass
Hold-or-sell calculator during downturns
- 🔒300+ individual stocks
Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE MIB, Nikkei 225
Pro
Complete diagnostic toolkit
Every scenario, every diagnostic, every output — plus direct analyst access for your specific portfolio questions.
- ✓Everything in Free
All historical scenarios, all ETF assets, full loss breakdown
- ✓9 forward-looking scenarios
China-Taiwan invasion, AI bubble burst, US sovereign debt crisis, SWIFT cyber attack, Stagflation 2026, and more
- ✓AI Portfolio Analyst
Claude-powered plain-language risk diagnosis with actionable next steps
- ✓Monte Carlo projection
1,000 correlated simulations — 1/3/5/10-year fan chart with probability of loss
- ✓Correlation heatmap
Full scenario-specific matrix — see hidden single-factor exposure
- ✓Antifragile Score™
Proprietary 0-100 portfolio health rating with breakdown
- ✓Crisis Compass
Already down? Data-driven hold-or-sell analysis based on historical recovery patterns
- ✓300+ individual stocks
Add Apple, Tesla, LVMH, Unicredit — from Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE MIB, Nikkei 225
- ✓Multi-scenario comparison
See loss % across all 18 scenarios simultaneously
- ✓Downloadable PDF report
Branded diagnostic to share with your advisor
- ✓Portfolio auto-save + presets
18 named strategies (Buffett, Boglehead, All Seasons, Risk Parity…)
- ✓Email support
Questions answered directly by our analyst
Black Swan
For funds, family offices, wealth managers
When an institution needs an independent second opinion without the conflicts of interest that come with large advisory firms.
- ✓Everything in Architect
Full platform access
- ✓API access
Integrate the risk engine into your own systems
- ✓Custom scenario modeling
Bespoke tail scenarios for your specific exposure
- ✓White-label PDF reports
Branded diagnostic reports for client presentation
- ✓Dedicated analyst sessions
Monthly deep-dive calls on your portfolio architecture
One payment. Architect for life.
Every scenario, every diagnostic, all future updates — forever. No renewals, no price increases, no catches.
$297
one-time · no subscription
Portfolio Audit
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Frequently Asked
Is the stress test really free — with no catch?
Yes. All 9 historical crisis scenarios, 80+ asset classes, up to 20 positions, full loss breakdown — completely free, forever. No credit card, no trial period. Pro ($19/mo) adds forward-looking scenarios, AI analysis, Monte Carlo projection, and individual stocks. But the core tool is genuinely free.
Is this financial advice?
No. The Black Swan Lab provides educational tools and market intelligence. We do not manage assets, recommend specific securities, or act as a registered investment advisor. Consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.
How accurate are the stress-test scenarios?
Scenarios are based on documented historical drawdowns from real market data (S&P 500, Bloomberg indices, etc.). Returns are approximate and simplified for model clarity. The tool is designed to give you directionally accurate diagnostics, not precise prediction.
Can I cancel anytime?
Yes, anytime — no lock-in periods, no cancellation fees. Monthly subscribers keep access until end of billing cycle. Annual subscribers keep access until end of the annual term.
What is the Antifragile Score™ based on?
It measures two things: (1) what percentage of your portfolio sits in assets that historically gain during the selected crisis — weighted by your actual allocation; and (2) diversification quality, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. The output is a 0–100 score where higher means your portfolio bends toward volatility rather than breaking under it.
What is the Monte Carlo projection and how is it different from stress testing?
Stress testing shows what happened in a specific past crisis — it is backward-looking and deterministic. Monte Carlo simulation is forward-looking and probabilistic: it generates 1,000 possible portfolio paths over your chosen horizon (1, 3, 5, or 10 years) using Geometric Brownian Motion with Cholesky-correlated asset returns. The output is a fan chart showing the 5th/25th/50th/75th/95th percentile outcomes, plus the probability of loss exceeding 10% or 30%. Together, the two tools are complementary: stress testing reveals what your portfolio cannot survive; Monte Carlo shows the distribution of what it might achieve.
What is Crisis Compass and how does it work?
Crisis Compass answers the question every investor asks during a downturn: "Should I sell now?" You input your current portfolio drawdown (e.g. -20%), and the tool shows you: how much of a full historical crisis you've already absorbed; the remaining downside from today's price (not from the peak); and exactly how much more the market must fall for selling to be the mathematically correct decision. It also quantifies the re-entry penalty — the cost of buying back after a typical 15% recovery from the trough, which is how most retail investors time their return. Based on historical scenario data. Not financial advice.
Cancel anytime · No lock-in · Not financial advice · Educational purposes only