Scenario Risk Calibration
9 forward-looking scenarios calibrated against live macro signals — VIX, oil, credit spreads, yield curve, and more.
Not a prediction. A calibration. Updated every 4 hours via FRED.
You can see the signal — but not the calibration.
Architect unlocks the exact score, macro drivers, and trend direction for all 9 scenarios. Updated every 4 hours.
9 Forward-Looking Scenarios — sorted by current risk level
AI Bubble Burst
Global Trade War
Middle East Escalation
US Sovereign Debt Crisis
Stagflation 2.0
China–Taiwan Conflict
Euro Fragmentation Crisis
Pandemic 2.0
Cyber Attack on Finance
Raw Macro Signals — Oct 15, 2026 (FRED)
VIX
16.5
WTI
$102
HY Spread
323bps
Real Yield
+2.78%
BEI
2.35%
2Y-10Y
+35bps
BTP-Bund
52bps
USD Index
121.6
METHODOLOGY
Each scenario is scored 0–100 using a weighted composite of observable macro proxies from FRED. The score represents the current elevation of macro conditions associated with that scenario — not a probability of occurrence. A score of 70 means the macro environment is unusually conducive to that scenario, not that it will happen with 70% probability. Geopolitical scenarios (China-Taiwan, Cyber Attack) have inherently weak macro proxies and lower maximum scores by design.
STRESS TEST YOUR PORTFOLIO
Now that you know the risks — test your portfolio against them.
Run the 9 forward-looking scenarios on your actual holdings. See which ones are most dangerous for your specific allocation.
Run Stress Test →All signals sourced from FRED (St. Louis Fed). Educational only. Not financial advice.